Adaptive Outlier-tolerant Exponential Smoothing Prediction Algorithms with Applications to Predict the Temperature in Spacecraft

The exponential smoothing prediction algorithm is widely used in spaceflight control and in process monitoring as well as in economical prediction. There are two key conundrums which are open: one is about the selective rule of the parameter in the exponential smoothing prediction, and the other is how to improve the bad influence of outliers on prediction. In this paper a new practical outlier-tolerant algorithm is built to select adaptively proper parameter, and the exponential smoothing prediction algorithm is modified to prevent any bad influence from outliers in sampling data. These two new algorithms are valid and effective to overcome the two open conundrums stated above. Simulation and practical results of sampling data from temperature sensors in a spacecraft show that this new adaptive outlier-tolerant exponential smoothing prediction algorithm has the power to eliminate bad infection of outliers on prediction of process state in future. Keywords-Exponential prediction; Adaptive smoothing prediction; Outlier-tolerance smoothing prediction.